Blame Will Avert a Government Shutdown

Unless Congress comes to an agreement over current fiscal year funding soon-- and one acceptable to President Obama -- many operations of the federal government will shut down after March 4. Although what exactly will be shutdown remains uncertain, it's likely the public will notice and be inconvenienced while hundreds of thousands of federal employees will be furloughed. In short, it would be a huge mess and someone will have to take the rap.

Blame will ultimately help to determine whether or not we'll see a government shout down next week. If every side believes the other will take the political heat, nobody will be willing to give in and offer a viable compromise, which will create stalemate and consequently a gap in funding for the federal government.

If history is any indication, it will be the House Republicans who will catch public opprobrium for being intransigent. In 1995, then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich's (R-GA) refusal to negotiate with President Clinton over the budget lead to two shutdowns in as many months. Clinton came out on top and Gingrich was portrayed as petulant rather than principled.

Fifteen years later, circumstances have clearly changed and lessons have been learned. The series of missteps by the Speaker (e.g. Gingrich complaining about having to exit Air Force One from the rear made him look like a cry baby) and his fellow Republicans will likely not be repeated. When Gingrich was going head-to-head with Clinton, one of his aides was current House Speaker John Boeher (R-OH). Having a front row seat to 1995's debacle will certainly have left a lasting impression.

However, it's not clear that Boehner's calling the shots in the House. When House Appropriations Chair Harold Rogers (R-KY) unveiled that chamber's continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government beyond March 4th -- one loaded with $74 billion in cuts (from Obama's proposed-but-never-adopted-FY 2011 budget) -- House freshmen Republicans threw a fit and demanded $26 billion more in cuts. Boehner relented, and the House passed (235-189) H.R. 1 setting the stage for the current showdown.

The only Republican response to Obama's and Senate Democrats' concerns about massive spending reductions has been a two-week CR that, on a prorated basis, is the equivalent of the $100 billion in cuts that's in the House's CR approved last week. In other words, the House hasn't moved an inch. The key question now is: Do these freshmen House Republicans believe that standing firm is key to being viewed by the public as part of the solution or part of the problem?

Senate Democrats are taking a middle-of-the-road approach and are offering some spending cuts, but the offer is significantly less than the Republican plan. On Thursday, Speaker Boehner asked Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) "...with all due respect: What are you willing to cut?" His answer appears to be a seven-month CR (till the end of the current fiscal year) that would cut $8.5 billion in earmarks and some $24.7 billion from programs marked for reduction in the president's FY 2012 budget request.

Reid appears to be paying attention to current polling in assessing how Senate Democrats should move. Gallup recently asked Americans whether their elected representatives should hold out or compromise. By a margin of 28 percentage points (60 to 32), Americans would prefer compromise.

Obama, meanwhile, has threatened to veto the House bill in its current form. He appears to be primarily preoccupied with keeping the nascent economic recovery moving. Either a shutdown or passage of the House CR would be a threat. But Obama has significant political cover with a Democratically-controlled Senate. Any plan that meets that chamber's approval will likely have been vetted by the president; the Senate is a proxy veto that will absolve Obama from having to be the prime reason for a government shutdown.

At the end of the day, unless Boehner can talk unruly House freshmen Republicans into agreeing to something less drastic than H.R. 1 before March 4, we're headed for a government shutdown.

Image by Flickr user Sarah G... used under a Creative Commons license.

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