Politics, Not Science, Alters Air Quality Models

Government air quality modeling experts from around the country are opposing a new Bush administration policy, which they contend threatens air quality and public health. They are among a growing number of scientists and other critics, who charge the Bush administration with manipulating science to support predetermined political outcomes. Most significantly, this may be the first time such criticism has been leveled from scientists inside a federal agency. The administration overrode regional EPA officials and altered air quality modeling for North Dakota's national parks and wilderness. The air quality modelers in all but one of the Environmental Protection Agency's 10 regions have publicly stated that the new policy represents "substantial changes from past air quality modeling guidance ... and accepted methods." North Dakota wants to capitalize on its massive coal deposits by building additional power plants to export energy around the country. However, under the Clean Air Act, the air over national parks and wilderness areas receives special protection. Previous modeling revealed that pollution in North Dakota had significantly increased since 1977, the baseline year. Using that analysis, the state would have to take steps to reduce pollution before new power plants could be built. The new policy permits the state to choose the baseline year, inviting manipulation of the modeling. Selecting a baseline year with higher pollution levels would allow more pollution in the future. An EPA analysis estimates that allowing flexibility in selecting the baseline year could more than double the pollution levels in the area. Another change that the modelers charge will permit higher pollution in the future is letting the state use average annual emissions, rather than periods of peak emissions. Bush administration officials involved in the new policy denied the accusation that the science had been altered to meet political goals. They asserted that the regulations permit the new flexibilities offered to North Dakota.
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