
The Fiscal Impact of House 100 Hours Agenda
by Matthew Madia, 1/23/2007
On Jan. 18, the House Democrats succeeded in passing the final piece of their six-part "100 hours" agenda. The combined fiscal impact of the bills — which implement 9/11 Commission recommendations, close energy tax loopholes and more — is significant: the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated $21.1 billion in savings and revenue over the next ten years if the bills are signed into law.
H.R. 1: Implementing the 9/11 Commission Recommendations Act of 2007
H.R. 1 makes a number of changes to homeland security policy, all of which will have a negligible impact on federal finances. It does, however, issue new cargo inspection requirements that will impose some costs on businesses that are responsible for screening airplane cargo and shipping containers.
CBO estimated 10-year cost: $0
H.R. 2: Fair Minimum Wage Act of 2007
H.R. 2 changes the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) to increase the federal minimum wage in three steps, from $5.15 per hour to $7.25 per hour over the next two years.
According to a CBO estimate dated Jan. 11, H.R. 2 would have no significant effect on the direct spending and revenues of the federal government. Because a very small number of federal employees are paid the federal minimum wage, the act would have a minor effect on the budgets of federal agencies that are controlled through annual appropriations.
There is speculation that a package of tax "sweeteners" for small business, the Small Business And Work Opportunity Act of 2007, may be combined in the Senate with the minimum wage increase. According to Citizens for Tax Justice, the biggest tax break is an extension and expansion of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit. Other breaks would allow restaurants and retail stores bigger tax write-offs and expand the number of businesses allowed to use the more advantageous cash method of accounting.
In a change from recent tax policy, the tax package is entirely offset. The biggest offset would restrict an especially egregious form of tax shelters known as sale-in, lease-out (SILOs). These arrangements, which can involve an American bank buying something like a subway or sewer system in another country and "leasing" it back to the foreign government for tax advantages, were already banned in 2004, but that ban would retroactively apply to deals made before 2004 under this provision.
CBO estimated 10-year cost: $0
H.R. 3: Stem Cell Research Enhancement Act of 2007
This bill has no associated fiscal impact. It directs "the Secretary [to] conduct and support research that utilizes human embryonic stem cells in accordance with this section." There is no new program that would require additional federal expenditures.
CBO estimated 10-year cost: $0
H.R. 4: Medicare Prescription Drug Price Negotiation Act of 2007
H.R. 4 enables the federal government to negotiate with private companies over the price of prescription drugs purchased for the Medicare Part D program. CBO estimates this new power will not produce lower drug prices because drug companies will still have the upper hand at the bargaining table.
Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA) has disputed this projection. Waxman's committee produced a report that found the new bill would save between $61 billion to $96 billion. The report reached this estimate by extrapolating from the cost of prescription drugs purchased by a Veteran Affairs Department prescription drug program. This comparison may be inexact, however, because the VA program uses negotiating tools that H.R. 4 does not grant to Medicare.
CBO estimated 10-year cost: $0
H.R. 5: College Student Relief Act of 2007
H.R. 5 changes some of the ways the federal government regulates student loans. It imposes reduced student loan rates, increased fees for lenders, and a reduced share of default collections retained by nonfederal guaranty agencies. Over ten years, these changes are projected to add $7.1 billion to the federal Treasury. Nearly all of the new savings will be realized after 2013, when student loan interest rates are scheduled to return to the pre-law level.
CBO estimated 10-year savings: $7.1 billion
H.R. 6: CLEAN Energy Act of 2007
According to a CBO estimate, through changes related to the development of federally owned resources, particularly oil and natural gas in submerged lands on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and conservation of resources fee levies, H.R. 6 would reduce direct spending by $2.6 billion over the 2007-2012 period and by $6.3 billion over the 2007-2017 period.
In addition, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates that, since income from oil, natural gas or any associated primary products would no longer qualify for an income tax deduction, the legislation would increase revenues by $2.9 billion over the 2007-2012 period and by $7.7 billion over the 2007-2017 period. The outlay savings and revenue increases from enacting H.R. 6 would total $5.5 billion and $14.0 billion, respectively, over those periods.
CBO estimated 10-year savings and revenue: $14 billion
