
Vol. 2 No. 5 March 5, 2001
by Guest Blogger, 7/18/2002
In This Issue
Bush's Budget Proposal – Analysis
President Bush's Budget (A Tax Cut) and Fuzzy Math
Budget Process Reforms
Government Reform Initiatives
Bush Strongly Supports GPRA
Faith-Based Initiatives
Promoting Older American Volunteers
Tax Cuts
House Ways And Means Approve The First Part Of The Bush Tax Cut
Fair Taxes for All
Regulatory Action
Senate Moves to Strike Down Ergonomics Rule
Supreme Court Upholds Clean Air Rulemaking
Court Strikes Down Oregon Ballot Measure on "Takings"
Mining Congress for Goodies
Listeria Rule Moves Forward
Medical Privacy Revisited
Nonprofit Sector Issues
Bills To Increase Charitable Giving Introduced In Congress
Charitable Choice Update
FEC Seeks Comments On Expansion Of "Political Committee" Definition
VeriSign: Saving the "org" in dot.org
Tech Help: Interactive Messaging
President Bush's Budget (A Tax Cut) and Fuzzy Math
Since it now seems that regardless of which ideological position you take on the Bush tax cut, the numbers and somebody's leadership are there to support you, we're going to try to simplify things.
First, it is indisputable that if you calculate the percentage amounts of taxes paid across the board, those people who make more money will get more tax relief – two percent of $150,000 is more than two percent of $20,000. The across-the-board cuts are the centerpiece of the Bush tax cut, and the most expensive component.
If you add in the benefits of the estate tax, the wealthy benefit even more. The U.S. Treasury reports that of all the people who died in 1997, only 1.9% paid any estate tax. While there are a few – a very few – small businesses and farms who are affected by the estate tax in a negative and unfair way, the people who pay most of the estate tax are the super-rich. Repeal of the estate tax will do nothing to benefit low- and middle-income people. Any reforms of the estate tax, necessary to prevent the loss of what are truly "family" farms and businesses or to simplify the tax, could be accomplished without total repeal. (See OMB Watch's Estate Tax Resource Page for more information.)
Finally, let's look at the child tax credit. Again, it's indisputable that if you pay no income tax, it makes no difference whether you get a $500 child credit or a $1,000 child credit. (And, remember, people who pay no income tax are still paying the full percentage of payroll taxes with every paycheck.) President Bush's proposal ignores the fact that working people with the lowest incomes will get no benefit, but, at the same time, he raises the income level of families who are eligible for a child credit from $110,000 to $200,000. That means that all those folks will get the full amount of the higher child credit. Once again, wealthier Americans will benefit more, but, according to estimates from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 12 million families would not benefit at all. President Bush has the right idea – raise the amount of the child tax credit. Going a little further, and making it fully refundable – payable to families who don't owe income tax – would make a huge difference. According to some estimates it would lift some 2 million children out of poverty.
The numbers about the distribution of the tax cut vary. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates that the Bush tax cut would give from 36% to 43% of its benefits to the wealthiest 1% of Americans. Citizens for Tax Justice sticks with its 43% figure, as do the House Budget Committee Democrats. The White House reluctantly, after being pressed, said that the wealthiest 1% of Americans would get 22% of the total tax cut-this figure, however, excludes benefits from repeal of the estate tax and the rate cuts that go into effect in 2006. It is also not based on U.S. Treasury data.
Even if you are not convinced that the Bush tax cut is unfair, there are factors that reveal it to be dangerous. This tax cut, once it becomes law, is phased in over the next 9 years. In other words, it will gradually cut revenue for the next nine years and then continue to drain resources forever unless taxes are raised. Even tax breaks that are put into effect for only a year almost always continue, each year, to be extended. For instance, the Research and Development tax credit that President Bush proposes to make permanent was enacted on a yearly basis. In budget parlance, such tax cuts are called "tax extenders." So, putting a "trigger" on the tax cut to somehow stop it midstream if the proposed surpluses don't materialize will likely be totally ineffective, and will create practical problems, as well.
The actual cost estimates vary. Few people still hold to the $1.6 trillion figure, simply because interest costs incurred from not paying down the national debt must be included, bringing the total to at least $2 trillion. Depending on other assumptions the Bush tax cut will cost from $2.1 to $2.5 trillion. The Joint Tax Committee has issued cost estimates for elements of the Bush plan in conjunction with the House Ways and Means consideration of HR 3 (see below), showing the cost to be at least $2.2 trillion, not including an adjustment of the Alternative Minimum Tax. (See also the CBPP analysis.)
Appropriated programs, on the other hand, are decided every year. While it isn't easy to cut popular programs, if there is no money to pay for them, it is much easier to end or curtail programs than tax cuts. President Bush has got it backwards-essentially making cuts in appropriated programs first in order to pay for his tax cuts.
To turn to the rest of President Bush's budget proposals, he indicates that discretionary spending will go up 4%, slightly above the cost of inflation. (This, however, assumes that population, a major factor in assessing the amount of funding required, remains constant.) It also excludes any "one-time-only " or earmarked appropriations that were included in last year's budget (and are always included in the budget).
President Bush also proposes raising education and military spending. Since there is only one pot, these increases will necessarily result in cuts in other programs. Most of the actual cuts were unspecified. It is clear, though, that many agencies will have their discretionary spending reduced. According to The Washington Post, the following will receive cuts: Agriculture (-7.7%), Commerce (-5.9%),
Transportation (-11.4%), Energy (-3.6%), Interior (-3.9%), Justice (-4.8%), the Environmental Protection Agency (-6.4%), and Labor (-5.0).
However, without more information, which Bush's budget outline does not contain, it is impossible to know with any certainty the amount of cuts or the specific programs that will be cut. Further, there is lots of language in the budget outline about "redirecting" funds from duplicative or outmoded programs and achieving savings by eliminating wasteful or inefficient programs or practices. Again, without giving direct information, much of the budget blueprint remains open to wide interpretation.
The President's budget really is only clear about one thing-his $1.6 plus trillion tax cut. Everything else is being fitted around that goal, in spite of the fact that many Americans are not particularly interested in a tax cut if it means cuts in important services and programs or threats to Social Security and Medicare. A tax cut may be a good idea, but shouldn't we talk about the meat and potatoes first, and then get to dessert?
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Bush's Budget Process Reforms
The President proposes a number of changes in the budget process "[t]o provide for a more orderly and responsible budget process and to wrest waste out of the Federal budget...." Most of the provisions are primarily intended to limit or reduce the size of government and insure enough resources to pay for the large tax cut that is the centerpiece of the President’s budget outline. As with the rest of the budget outline, except for his proposed tax cut, these recommendations for changing the budget process are only briefly sketched out and many questions about how they would work are left unanswered.
The budget identifies four major structural reforms:
- Extend discretionary spending caps at the current level adjusted for inflation and extend the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) requirements. Although there is not much detail, the President proposes a continuation of caps or limits on discretionary spending for the next five years, holding spending constant after adjusting for inflation. The budget outline does not give precise numbers for the amount of the caps. One controversial issue will be what the "baseline" of last year’s spending will be when calculating the cap. There are rumors that the baseline would exclude about $15 billion in "earmarks" that were in last year’s spending bills. Since such earmarks are included nearly every year, this type of baseline would cause a substantial cut in federal discretionary spending. (EPA’s proposed budget, for example, is not discussed as a cut because the administration excludes "earmarks.") Further, while a modest adjustment for inflation is included, there is no adjustment for increased population. There is also no adjustment for increases in military spending which comes out of the same overall cap as domestic and international aid programs. The caps were originally established to get the budget out of deficit. Once that was achieved, the caps for FY 2000 and 2001 were quietly waived because spending needs were recognized and budget surpluses existed. Now, President Bush proposes setting caps for the sole purpose of limiting discretionary spending and insuring that there will be the resources to pay down the national debt. The real threat to debt reduction, however, and the primary purpose of the President’s budget, is his huge tax cut. More simply, the President wants to limit discretionary spending in order to have the resources to pay for his tax cut and keep his other promises about debt reduction. Discretionary spending is not the problem. As a percentage of the overall GDP of the country, discretionary spending is at its lowest level since 1966. In addition to the limits on discretionary spending, the President also proposes continuing the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) requirements on mandatory spending. The Bush PAYGO extension is highly controversial. PAYGO was created through the 1990 Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) which was written to reduce the deficit. PAYGO rules say that any mandatory spending (mandatory spending, such as entitlement programs, are not covered by annual appropriations bills and the discretionary caps discussed above) or tax legislation cannot increase the deficit. It must be offset by reductions in mandatory spending or increases in receipts (e.g., taxes). The President proposes to extend these rules to reducing the surplus – after Congress acts on his tax cut plan and Medicare reform plan. Thus, if there is any surplus left, any spending or tax change would need to be offset with other spending or tax change so as to not reduce the remaining surplus (or increase a deficit). In other words, it would be a vehicle to insure that the surplus cannot be used to create or expand any mandatory spending programs. The President also proposes to eliminate the use of advance appropriations "simply to avoid spending limitations." Advance appropriations have commonly been used to by-pass spending caps. Another way the spending caps have been exceeded is by designating "emergency" spending. The President proposes to establish a $5.6 billion National Emergency Reserve. This would entail a much stricter definition of what constitutes an emergency and would require both the President and Congress to agree. There is no indication of what happens if there is no agreement or if a true emergency exceeds the Reserve.
- Change from annual to biennial budgeting. The President proposes a two-year budget cycle that would occur in the non-election year. Depending on the specific proposal put forward, this, too, could be highly controversial. Congressional spending is often guided by a variety of factors including the state of the economy. When there is an economic downturn, the counter-cyclical effect of federal spending can help to minimize, even reverse, the downturn. Thus, it is important that there is a means for changing spending priorities each year to respond to these type of influences. Also, given the long lead time necessary to doing a budget, needs may arise that were unforeseeable when the budget is prepared. Finally, biennial budgeting tends to reinforce the status quo rather than allowing adjustments for changing priorities and needs.
- Change budget process rules, including an anti-government shutdown requirement. The President proposes that if an appropriations bill is not signed by October 1 – the start of the fiscal year – funding would be automatically provided at the lower of the President’s budget request or the prior year’s level. This would allow indefinite funding at a possibly inadequate level and could have very harmful effects especially on programs for low-income Americans. The President also proposes to make the congressional budget resolution a binding document by converting it to a joint resolution, thereby requiring the President’s signature and giving it the force of law. It is unclear what would happen if the President and Congress could not agree on a budget resolution.
- Recreating the President’s line-item veto. Although a line-item veto was passed in 1996, it was found to be unconstitutional. Now Bush proposes another line-item veto but pegged to reducing the national debt. The savings from anything he vetoes would be used to retire the national debt. Exactly why this circumvents the constitutional challenge is unclear.
- Making government more "citizen-centered;"
- Making government more "results-oriented;" and
- Making government more "market-based."
- Create a Compassion Capital Fund. There are no details on what this Fund will be used for, how it will be administered, or how much money will be put into it. John DiIulio, the head of the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiative, told a group of nonprofit leaders that the President is proposing $700 million for the Fund for next year, but the budget proposes that amount for the entire Champion Compassionate Conservatism initiative, not just this Fund. On February 27, the President said in his address to Congress that he will make $700 million over 10 years available for the Fund. How much money is proposed for next year is not clear. DiIulio did indicate that the Fund would be used to for innovative community, faith-based initiatives, but he did not have any more detail.
- Open federal after-school programs to community groups, churches, and charities.
- Start a new pre-release inmate pilot that makes federal funds available on a "competitive basis for faith-based pre-release programs at Federal facilities."
- Make grants to faith-based and community groups for dealing with low-income children of prisoners.
- Increase drug treatment funding and "ensure that faith-based and other non-medical drug treatment programs" are considered.
- Establish second chance homes for unwed teenage mothers.
- Promote responsible fatherhood. The budget calls for $60 million in grants to "faith-based and community organizations that help unemployed or low-income fathers and their families avoid or leave cash welfare," as well as programs to strengthen parenting and marriage. It is unclear whether this $60 million is part of the overall $700 million in the initiative or an additional amount; the budget does not provide enough detail.
- Increase the adoption tax credit from $5,000 to $7,500 and make it permanent.
- Expand efforts to help low-income families pay rent and avoid homelessness.
- To allow non-itemizers to deduct charitable contributions. The budget provides no detail, but other documents made public by the Bush Administration indicate that non-itemizers could deduct the full amount of their contributions, up to the amount of the standard deduction (see related story).
- Create a state charity tax credit that allows individuals to give money to designated charities that address poverty and take a tax credit on state income taxes. States can offset lost revenue by using TANF money. The budget provides vague estimates on the cost to TANF, saying that the five-year cost to TANF will be $850 million. There are no details on this proposal, but past legislative initiatives had narrow definitions of "poverty" and excluded advocacy activities in determining whether a charity qualified for the credit program.
- Allow IRA rollovers for charitable contributions. This would allow individuals to give money from their Individual Retirement Accounts to charities without paying a tax on the income.
- A number of changes to promote corporate philanthropy. The state charity tax credit mentioned above would be extended to corporations, although there are no details on how this would be done. The cap on corporate charitable deductions would be raised. And corporations would be protected against liability for charitable contributions, such as with food, vehicles, equipment, facilities.
- Increasing NSSC funding by $14 million to $203 million. After five years, the President would like NSSC funding to be $250 million.
- Establishing the Silver Scholarship Program which will allow seniors who provide 500 hours of volunteering in tutoring or mentoring programs to receive a $1,000 scholarship that can be deposited in an education savings account. $20 million is proposed for 10,000 scholarships.
- Creating a Veterans Mission for Youth program which provides $15 million for grants to connect veterans and retired military personnel with youth through mentoring, tutoring, and other after-school programs.
- The tax cut proposed by President Bush is far too large and fundamentally unfair.
- The Bush tax cut jeopardizes the nation's ability to meet its domestic and foreign responsibilities, threatens the nation's fiscal stability and security, and inequitably distributes the benefits it provides.
- Any tax cut enacted into law must be far smaller and much more equitable than the Bush tax cut in order to meet the needs and interests of the American people.
- It gives plants a 10-year exemption from all new air pollution controls by EPA and states;
- It exempts new plants from having to install the best, most-up-to-date pollution controls; and
- It allows plants to ignore a requirement that they show pollution increases will not damage nearby National Parks.
- From a solicitation made expressly for the purpose of influencing federal elections;
- From a party committee, separate segregated fund used for electioneering or an individual campaign committee (501(c)(3) organizations are excepted);
- By an organization whose charter or by-laws authorize it to become involved in federal election related activities;
- By an organization controlled by a federal candidate, his or her campaign committee or any committee authorized by a federal candidate (would exclude groups that have an incidental relationship with a vendor used by a campaign);
- By a group exempt for taxation under the Internal Revenue Code section 527 that is not restricted to working on state and local elections;
- Through in-kind contributions for communications to the general public, made in coordination with a campaign.
- Fundraising that states proceeds will be used to influence a federal election;
- Communications to the general public that are coordinated with a campaign;
- Communications to the general public that refer to a candidate for federal office that have been tested to determine their impact on voters or where the intended audience is chosen because of its voting behavior;
- Those made to a commercial vendor for a product expressly designed to influence a federal election.
